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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 15-45 min | 60-180 min | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 4-20 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |