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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Paper illustration of Value Chain Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Value Chain Analysis
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario.Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen15-45 minHalf dayHalf day
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten1-83-83-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesStress Test Report, Action Plan per ScenarioValue Chain Map, Lever List
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis
StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis
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