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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 15-45 min | 1-3 h | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | SensemakingDecisionRationale | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |