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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Opportunity Solution Tree |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When discovery keeps swinging between goals, ideas, and learning loops, it creates clear steering logic. It connects the desired outcome, opportunities, and experiments into a legible structure. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 h Setup, laufend | 30-60 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Opportunity Solution Tree, Experiment Backlog, Learning Log | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DiscoveryOutcomesExperimentsOpportunity | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |