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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making OODA Loop |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 15-60 min je Zyklus | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |