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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen15-60 min je Zyklus2-8 h15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten1-82-82-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action UpdatesProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk PlanRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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