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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen15-60 min je Zyklus45-90 minHalf day
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten1-82-83-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action UpdatesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanStress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis
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