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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen15-60 min je Zyklus45-60 min25-40 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten1-82-81-5
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action UpdatesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingLearning Card with evidence and next action
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning
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