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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile NoEstimates |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | laufend | Half day | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-12 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationForecastingFlow | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |