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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-75 min | 45-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Test Matrix, Test Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |