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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 30-60 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 2-10 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |