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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-6 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | RiskRoot causeSafety | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |