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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighHighMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 WochenMehrere Tage bis Wochen2-6 h2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-63-82-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
RiskRoot causeSafety
Root causeSafetyIncident
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