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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-6 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 3-10 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |