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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 45-90 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |