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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 WochenMehrere Tage bis Wochen15-30 min2-8 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-62-62-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
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