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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Bottleneck Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a flow that backs up at one point, the method looks for the capacity limit with the greatest leverage. It explains why extra effort elsewhere barely improves throughput. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Bottleneck Map, Flow Metrics, Improvement Options, Follow-up Measures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | FlowMeasurementConstraints |
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