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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Agile Bucket System |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Half day | 30-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 3-12 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationExpertsForecasting |