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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 45-90 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | LeanStartupValidationMVP | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |