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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Innovation Lean Startup |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Strategy Lean Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For uncertain business assumptions, the method forces the idea into contact with real market reactions early. It separates wishful picture, assumption, and observable behavior, so that learning becomes faster than planning. This translates uncertainty into measurable insight. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Wochen bis Monate je Lernzyklus | 45-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Hypothesis list, MVPs, Learning reports, Pivot or persevere decision | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Lean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | LeanStartupValidationMVP | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model |