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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | Half day | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | KnowledgeMappingRisk | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |