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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Knowledge Modeling Knowledge Mapping |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Knowledge Mapping makes knowledge, gaps, and transfer paths visible across a field. It fits when expertise should not just exist but also be findable and transferable. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Knowledge Map, Critical Knowledge Areas, Transfer Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | KnowledgeMappingRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |