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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-8 h | 1-3 h | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-10 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |