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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen2-8 h15-60 min je Zyklus15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-81-82-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk PlanSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action UpdatesRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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