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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-8 h | 20-45 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-10 | 2-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns |