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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Kaizen Event.
Operations
Kaizen Event
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for PDCA Cycle.
Operations
PDCA Cycle
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a tightly scoped process segment with noticeable waste, the method bundles shared energy for change. It suits situations that call for fast learning loops and visible adjustments.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.For an improvement that still has to prove itself in everyday work, the method runs it through small learning loops. It connects planning, checking, and standardization into a repeatable learning mode.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen0.5-5 Tage45-60 min1 h bis mehrere Wochen
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten4-102-81-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesKaizen Charter, Waste List, Improvement Experiments, Standard Work UpdateAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingPDCA Log, Experiment Plan, Learning Outcome, Standard Change
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
LeanContinuous improvementOperations
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Continuous improvementLeanExperiments
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