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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Incident Command workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Incident Command
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Blameless Postmortem workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Blameless Postmortem
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.During an acute incident with several people involved, the method creates a clear leadership and communication structure. It reduces chaos when fast coordination and clean situational awareness are both needed at once.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.After an incident with damage or a near miss, the method creates a sober field for learning without assigning blame. It directs attention to the course of events, conditions, and effective countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 WochenAs needed45-90 min30-90 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten4-152-83-12
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesIncident Log, Action Tracker, Stakeholder UpdatesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanPostmortem Doc, Action Items, Timeline
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
IncidentOperationsReliability
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Site Reliability EngineeringIncidentLearningReliability
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