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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 45-60 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |