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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min | 2-8 h | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-10 | 2-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |