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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min | 60-120 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |