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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Growth Growth Experiment |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When growth ideas surface quickly, the temptation to build immediately instead of learning is high. A Growth Experiment frames an assumption so target group, lever, and measurement are clear before the first deployment. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-6 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Experiment card, Result summary, Next bet | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | MarketingGrowthExperimentsLearning | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |