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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy GIST Planning |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | GIST Planning helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities. It links customer value, product logic, and decision priorities, and captures the result as goals, an idea bank, and a step-project list. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Wochen bis Monate je Goal | 45-60 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Goals, Idea bank, Step-project list, Tasks, Learning reports | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RoadmapOutcomesPlanningExperiments | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |