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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper notes move from an inbox to action, project and calendar collections.
Operations
Getting Things Done
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.With many open commitments and ideas in daily life, a reliable external storage system emerges. The method relieves the mind so priority and context don't have to compete in memory.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen1-2 h Setup, laufend45-90 min10-20 min daily
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten12-81
Formatdifferent
AsyncAsyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAction Lists, Project List, Review RoutineAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ProductivityPlanningTasksExecution
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
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