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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Gemba Walk workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
Gemba Walk
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen30-120 min45-90 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-62-82-5
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesObservation Notes, Improvement IdeasAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanA3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
LeanObservationProcessOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations
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