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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy GAP Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | GAP Analysis compares the current state with a target picture and makes the distance manageable. It becomes useful when, ahead of new initiatives, it must become clear which capabilities, processes, or resources are missing. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 20–45 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Gap Matrix, Action Plan, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyAnalysisPlanning | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |