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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 WochenHalber Tag45-90 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten5-202-83-10
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ResilienceOperationsIncident
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
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