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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-4 h | 60-120 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |