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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Growth Flywheel |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 60-120 min | 30-90 min | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 1-10 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | GrowthRetentionConversion | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |