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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen60-120 min1-5 Tage1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-8NutzertrafficNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesFlywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
GrowthRetentionConversion
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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