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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen60-120 min1-2 Wochen pro Iteration45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-82-62-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesFlywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results ReportAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
GrowthRetentionConversion
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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