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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Growth Flywheel |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 60-120 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | GrowthRetentionConversion | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |