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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 1-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskRoot causeSafety | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |