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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen2-6 h15-30 min1-4 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-82-63-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresProblem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
RiskRoot causeSafety
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident
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