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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations MORT Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-4 h | 2-6 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident |