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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |