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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen30-60 min1-2 Wochen pro Iteration20-35 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten1-52-61-5
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesCompleted Experiment Canvas, Success MetricPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results ReportTest Card with a pre-set threshold
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
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