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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 60-120 min | 30-60 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |