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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 60-120 min | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |