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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen60-120 min45-60 min1-2 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
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