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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |